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AutorIn 1:Goodwin, Paul
Titel
Titel:Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight
Veröffentlichungsvermerk
Ort:Medford, MA
Verlag:International Institute of Forecasters
Jahr:2010
Zeitschriften / Sammelbände
Zeitschrift:FORESIGHT, 5/2010
Abstract
Abstract:"(...) Why should forecasters, eyeing the future, fear hindsight bias? Because hindsight bias makes us believe we?re better forecasters than we really are, and that the world?s a much more predictable place than it really is. Hindsight bias can hinder our learning from our past forecasting errors, hence limiting the extent to which we can improve our forecasting skills through experience. Researchers continue to investigate the nature and implications of hindsight bias and ways to reduce its impact. On one database, I counted 46 papers on the topic, published in the last two years alone. (...)"
[foresight]
Verfügbarkeit
Download: hier klicken (PDF  278 KB)
URL: International Institute of Forecasters