| | | Goodwin, Paul | | | Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight | | | Medford, MA | | International Institute of Forecasters | | 2010 | | | FORESIGHT, 5/2010 | | | "(...) Why should forecasters, eyeing the future, fear hindsight bias? Because hindsight bias makes us believe we?re better forecasters than we really are, and that the world?s a much more predictable place than it really is. Hindsight bias can hinder our learning from our past forecasting errors, hence limiting the extent to which we can improve our forecasting skills through experience. Researchers continue to investigate the nature and implications of hindsight bias and ways to reduce its impact. On one database, I counted 46 papers on the topic, published in the last two years alone. (...)"
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