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| | | Tichy, Gunther | | Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung (ITA) der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften | | | Over-optimism Among Experts in Assessment and Foresight | | | Wien | | Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung (ITA) der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften | | 2002 | | ITA-02-05 | | | It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a
broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable
method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses
both questions: Self-rating is in fact an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment
of self-rated top-experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias, due to the experts? involvement
and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively
correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least
pioneering and for organisational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business
have a stronger optimism bias than those working in academia or in the administration. Consistent
with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and
potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should
base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge
and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore,
offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists. | | |  hier klicken (PDF 371 KB) | |  Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung (ITA) der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften | |
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